Shiny Rates on December’s “Community Weekend”

The 12th official Pokémon GO Community Day brought an extra dose of celebration: a whole weekend of special spawns featuring all 11 prior Community Day species! The traditional 3-hour bonus window still took place, calling into question whether boosted shiny rates would be active throughout the whole weekend, during the 3-hour bonus window, or both.

Silph Researchers rapidly gathered data on the shiny rates both during the bonus window and outside it, and we have some exciting findings to share. Let’s dive in!

Findings

At the time of writing, researchers are still reporting in with their findings, but already 6,973 Community Day Pokémon have been reported outside of the 3 hour bonus period. So far the shiny rate of these species over the course of this weekend has an observed mean of:

1 in 90

with a 95% confidence interval of 1 in 75 to 1 in 120

This represents effectively a 5x boost over the ‘base’ shiny rate observed by the Research Group: 1 in 450.

In order to discover any potential changes in the shiny rate during the weekend, Pokémon encountered during the 3-hour special bonus event were reported separately. Past community days have seen an observed shiny rate of approximately 1 in 24.5, meaning that this weekend’s non-event window rate was significantly lower than that enjoyed by travelers during historical 3-hour event windows.

An additional 5,950 Pokémon encounters have been reported by researchers during their region’s 3-hour bonus window. The rates observed during this short window differed significantly, with the shiny rate increasing to:

1 in 24

with a 95% confidence interval of 1 in 22 to 1 in 28

which almost perfectly matches the standard 3-hour Community Day shiny rate, and is significantly different than the probability outside of the bonus period (p-value < 10-6).

Parting Words

If you joined the hunt for shiny CD Pokémon this weekend, your odds during the 3 hour bonus window should have felt familiar!

With just under 24 hours left in this weekend’s event, keep in mind that a boosted shiny rate of 1 in 90 requires 125 Pokémon encounters for a 75% chance of encountering a shiny. And for an 85% chance, 170 encounters!

The Silph Scientists would like to give special recognition and extra big thanks to all the researchers who have volunteered their time, efforts and data to furthering the community’s knowledge and understanding of the world of Pokémon GO – especially those who’ve joined us in these studies on Community Days and during our Shiny Hunts this year.

Until next time, stay safe out there, travelers. We’ll see you on the road!

– Scientists WoodWose & Titleist12