Raid Reward Probabilities: April 2018

Last August the Silph Research Group revealed the secret mechanics behind the rewards allotted for successfully conquering a raid.

Silph researchers have continued monitoring this mechanic ever since. Today, after analyzing over 7,000 raids and 43,000 bundles it’s time to update our information on: the current raid reward tiers!

Let us start with a quick summary of raid rewards:

A Quick Recap: Raid Rewards 101

Bundles:  Raid rewards are grouped together in bundles that contain multiples of the same item (for example, 3 revives or 3 rare candies).
Bundle Count: The number of reward bundles received is determined by the number of Premier Balls earned and the raid level.
Bundle Content: The content of each reward bundle is randomly chosen, and as such decided by luck.
Raid Level: The number of a given reward item per bundle is dependent on the raid level. Thus, higher raid levels give on average more items even when the number of bundles is the same.
TMs:  The probability of getting a Fast TM or Charged TM is highly correlated with the raid level, whilst the other reward items (Revives, Golden Razz Berries, and Rare Candies) each have the same probability of appearing in a reward bundle.

What’s Changed?

Since our last raid rewards breakdown, the reward system has seen two major changes:

  1. August 16, 2017:Potions were added into the reward pool and TM drop rates were lowered drastically.
  2. November 21, 2017: Niantic added a guaranteed bundle of Golden Razz Berries for every completed raid. At the same time, the size of some reward bundles was changed and TM drop rates were increased.

You can read more details about these changes in the Appendix section below this article.

Current Raid Rewards

After recording and analyzing the rewards from 7,417 raids (and 43,183 bundles), here are the current raid reward bundles, their sizes, and their respective probabilities1:

No changes were observed to the correlation or counts between Premier Balls earned and the number of bundles received. For reference, this is depicted in the table below:

Balls Earned
6 x 1 2 3 4 4
7 x 2 3 4 5 5
8 x 2 3 4 5 5
9 x 2 3 5 6 6
10 x 2 3 5 6 6
11 x 2 4 5 7 7
12 x 2 4 6 7 7
13 x 2 4 6 8 8
14 x 2 4 6 8 8

Putting It Into Practice

Using the above tables, we can calculate the expected (average) rewards from each raid level, given the number of Premier Balls earned:

  • For 14 Premier Balls (6 for defeating the boss, +3 for individual damage, +2 for gym control, +3 for team contribution):

14 Premier Balls ~ Expected (Average) Rewards
4.3 8.3 0.43 0.43 4.3 8.6
4.4 7.4 0.36 0.27 2.9 5.9
3.4 5.3 0.22 0.12 2.3 9.1
1.6 3.6 0.03 0.02 0.8 4.7
0.8 2.4 0.01 <0.01 0.4 1.6

  • For 10 Premier Balls (6 for defeating the boss, then e.g. +1 for individual damage, 0 for gym control, +3 for team contribution):

10 Premier Balls ~ Expected (Average) Rewards
3.2 7.2 0.32 0.32 3.2 6.4
3.3 6.3 0.27 0.21 2.2 4.4
2.8 4.9 0.18 0.1 1.9 7.5
1.2 3.2 0.02 0.02 0.6 3.5
0.8 2.4 0.01 <0.01 0.4 1.6

PARTING WORDS

Even after the two reward changes, legendary raids still offer the maximum rewards – in particular elusive Charged TMs.

Moreover, rewards still increase with the number of Premier Balls awarded. This means that, when possible, it is still advisable to raid in small groups and with members of the same team.

However, even solo players can now have a chance at TMs (especially Fast TMs) if they manage to defeat several level 3 raids. And remember: rewards for 12 and 14 Premier Balls are identical for levels 1, 2 and 3, so gym control is irrelevant for solo raids.

Happy raiding, travelers!

Notes

Note 1:

The underlying mechanics behind these probabilities are still unknown, but they are likely to be the result of integer weights applied to the different item bundles. Here is an educated guess of these weights:

 Raid Level
20 20 6 6 20 40

20 20 5 4 20 40
20 20 4 2 20 40
40 40 2 1 40 80
80 80 2 1 80 160

Appendix: Detailed Timeline

As noted above, Niantic made two major changes to the raid reward system in the last several months. Let’s take a closer look at when those occurred, and how they might affect raiding strategy.

AUGUST 16, 2017: THE ADDITION OF POTIONS

On August 16, 2017, several changes were made to raid rewards. The most significant of these was the addition of Potion, Super Potion, and Hyper Potion bundles.

The reward bundle sizes at this time are broken down in the following table:

 Raid Level
5 3 1 1 3  – 5 3
4 3 1 1 2  – 4 3
4 3 1 1 2  – 4 2
3 2 1 1 1 5 3  –
2 1 1 1 1 4 2  –


Before this update, the drop probabilities of non-TM bundles were equally proportioned between Revives, Golden Razz Berries, and Rare Candies. After this update, Potions available at the relevant raid level were added at double the proportion of Revives, Golden Razz Berries, and Rare Candies.

In addition to the introduction of Potions to the reward pool, this update also brought about two significant “nerfs” to raid rewards:

    • The number of reward bundles for level 5 raids was decreased to match that of level 4 raids.
    • The drop rates for Fast TM and Charged TM bundles were decreased to roughly half of their previous rates.
NOVEMBER 9-14, 2017: COVERT TESTING

Between the 9th and 14th of November 2017, Niantic tested a new mode of reward distribution – the guaranteed bundle.

During this testing period, a small number of players experienced the following changes upon the completion of a raid:

    • An extra bundle of Golden Razz Berries was awarded, separate from the regular reward bundles. In their journal entries, trainers would see these Golden Razz Berries show up as a separate stack from the Golden Razz Berries obtained from the usual reward bundles.
    • The sizes of the guaranteed bundles of Golden Razz Berries per completed raid were:
      2 Golden Razz Berries for level 1 and 2 raids
      3 Golden Razz Berries for level 3 and 4 raids, and
      4 Golden Razz Berries for level 5 raids.
  •  The bundle sizes during this test-phase (for raids where this guaranteed bundle was observed) were adjusted as follows:

 Raid Level
5->3 3 1 1 3  – 5 3
4->3 3 1 1 2  – 4 3->2
4->2 3->2 1 1 2  – 4 2
3->2 2 1 1 1 5 3  –
2 1 1 1 1 4 2  –

NOVEMBER 21, 2017: GUARANTEED GOLDEN RAZZ BERRIES

The update on November 21, 2017 saw the full implementation of this guaranteed bundle for Golden Razz Berries. What had previously been observed with a small sub-set of trainers (during the 9-14 November test phase) now applied to everyone.

We call this new fixed bundle of Golden Razz Berries the guaranteed bundle because, henceforth, for every raid completed, a trainer is guaranteed to receive a fixed bundle of golden berries.

This guaranteed bundle is awarded by default according to the raid level, and is separate from the other normal reward bundles which are distributed according to their probability.

Additionally, two other changes were observed with this update:

    1. Prior to this juncture, there were two types of potion bundles for every raid level (Potions and Super Potions for levels 1 and 2; Super Potions and Hyper Potions for levels 3, 4, and 5), but now each raid level offers only one type of potion bundle (Super Potions for levels 1, 2 & 3; Hyper Potions for levels 4 & 5).

      However, the probability of receiving a Potion bundle remains the same as before – in other words, the bundles for Revives, Golden Razz Berries, Rare Candies, and Potions are distributed in a 1:1:1:2 ratio.

    2. The drop rates for TM bundles in level 3, 4, and 5 raids were increased again.