Yokohama GO Fest: Poliwag Shiny Rates

Greetings once again, travelers! As the boiling heat of summer nears its end, cool off with the water-type Pokémon, Poliwag, the Tadpole Pokémon, as a shiny for the first time in Pokémon GO! While the eyes of our researchers may resemble the swirl on Poliwag’s stomach in their attempts to distinguish the shiny form, they have been hard at work discovering whether the shiny rates inside and outside of GOFest Yokohama have been boosted. While the amount of data is still low, we’ll have little statistical confidence in our results, but as more data is accumulated over the next few days, our estimate will get better and better. All data is gathered by researchers who are not attending GO Fest in person. Let’s take a look at what we’ve found so far!

8/9/2019 12:00 UTC Final Update

In addition to recording data on Poliwag, researchers are also taking notes on 7 other “indicator” species that are spawning in high numbers. These include: Anorith, Drifloon, Horsea, Kabuto, Luvdisc, Pikachu (with hats!), and Wailmer. If these indicator species have a boosted shiny rate, then it is likely that all species spilling out of the Yokohama habitats have a boosted shiny rate too. In total, researchers have recorded 10,561 of these indicator species, with 31 shinies to gloat about. We’re sitting right in between the boosted rate of 1 in 150 and the standard rate of 1 in 450. Therefore, the most likely conclusion is that all other non-Poliwag species are using the standard shiny rate of:

1 in 450 (99% CI of 1 in 225 to 1 in 570)

In our 72 hour Task Force researchers recording 5,627 Poliwag encounters and 40 shinies. Based on past experience, we feel confident in concluding that Poliwag is enjoying a boosted shiny rate of:

1 in 150 (99% CI of 1 in 95 to 1 in 220)

See you next time! Thanks for the read!