An Update on 2020 Lunar New Year Event Lucky Trades

Yesterday our researchers reported that lucky trade rates from exchanging Pokémon less than one year old were not significantly boosted above the standard 5% rate (99% confidence interval of 3.7% – 6.7%). Data from the second day of the event is in, and there is some exciting news to share!

Data

Researchers have completed 993 trades of new Pokémon during the second 24 hours of the event. Of these trades, 94 became lucky. This is an average probability of 9.5%, with a 99% confidence interval of 7.2% – 12.0%. These data are significantly different from trades completed during the first 24 hours of the event (Chi-squared test, p-value = 2.9e-5).

Conclusions

While exact rates will have to wait for more data, these new data indicate that the lucky trade rate has been restored to a similar level as the 2019 Lunar New Year Event, where researchers reported a lucky trade rate of about 9%. This rate will almost certainly persist through the end of the event. We will continue to update this post with more exact numbers and alert the community if any further anomalies are detected.

Thanks for stopping by, travelers, and we’ll see you on the Road!


Appendix (added 1/29/2020)

Here are the data broken out by date. Note that these dates are researchers’ local dates, and therefore do not provide as clear of a distinction between the first and second 24 hours of the event as is shown above.

Date Total Trades Lucky Trades Average Probability 99% Confidence Interval
1/24/2020 762 43 5.6 % 3.7 – 8.0 %
1/25/2020 1,355 87 6.4 % 4.8 – 8.3 %
1/26/2020 1,258 110 8.7 % 6.8 – 10.9 %
1/27/2020 472 45 9.5 % 6.4 – 13.3 %
1/28/2020 577 43 7.5 % 4.9 – 10.5 %
1/29/2020 636 41 6.5 % 4.2 – 9.2 %
1/30/2020 676 66 9.8 % 7.0 – 12.9 %
1/31/2020 569 36 6.3 % 4.0 – 9.2 %
2/1/2020 532 47 8.8 % 6.0 – 12.3 %
2/2/2020 944 72 7.6 % 5.6 – 10.0 %
2/3/2020 321 33 10.3 % 6.4 – 15.0 %
2/4/2020 85 9 10.6 % 3.8 – 20.8 %