Ultra Unlock 2020: Unova Week Genesect and Roggenrola Shiny Rates

Travelers are currently enjoying the second half of the third Ultra Unlock reward that we received for completing all of the Global Challenges during Pokémon GO Fest 2020! This week focused on Pokémon from the Unova region, and has included the release of several new species such as Emolga, Cottonee, and the roaming ‘Bash Buffalo’ regional, Bouffalant.

As an extra special treat, both Genesect and Roggenrola can now be found in their shiny varieties! Our researchers — excited to encounter the Chrome Red Robo Bug and the Purple and Orange Rock — popped some incense, used some raid passes, and set out carefully to help figure out the shiny rates of these two. Here’s what we found out!

Our researchers were able to succeed in battle against 1,890 Genesect and out of those, 103 shone red which gives us an observed rate of

with a 95% confidence interval of 1/15 to 1/22.

This shows us that Genesect seems to have used the normal Legendary Raid rate that we have observed in previous articles.

Roggenrola was somewhat difficult to find for our researchers, but we still managed to get 10 shinies in 5,623 encounters. This evaluates to an observed rate of

with a 95% confidence interval of 1/329 to 1/1172.

This leads us to believe that Roggenrola’s shiny rate was not boosted above the Standard base rate.

In addition to our Unova Week data, we thought it would be nice to unveil the mystery of the Deoxys and Unown shiny rates from Enigma Week — here’s what we discovered!

Our researchers were able to encounter 1,136 of the Normal Forme of Deoxys, the ‘DNA’ Pokémon, and 71 of those ended up being shiny, giving us an observed rate of

with a 95% confidence interval of 1/13 to 1/20.

This leads us to believe that Deoxys also followed the normal Legendary Raid rate.

As for the much-desired ‘Symbol’ Pokémon…

Our researchers, rising to the call of action, faced 1,397 Unown in raids and of those, 24 sparkled, for an observed rate of

with a 95% confidence interval of 1/41 to 1/91.

Using this data, we can infer that Unown was most likely using the Permaboost rate that other species such as Scyther and Onix use.

Thanks for reading- stay safe on the Road, and until next time Travelers!


Article by PhoenixCrystal7
Analysis by IvoryTinkler1
The Shiny Task Force is run by PhoenixCrystal7, IvoryTinkler1 and SarcasmCloud
Thank you to all the researchers who contributed their precious data to the Task Force

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