Ultra Bonus Week 3: Shiny Rates

Greetings, travelers! We are now on the third and final week of the Ultra Bonus rewards, which brings us Mewtwo, the Genetic Pokémon, as well as new Pokémon from the Unova region. Until September 23rd, Mewtwo will be featured in Legendary Raid Battles with the special charge move Psystrike, and lucky trainers might even encounter its Shiny form. This event also brings us Shiny forms of the Unova Pokémon Klink, Patrat, and Lillipup. Patrat and Lillipup spawns have been boosted for the week, so our researchers jumped on the opportunity to gather some information on their shiny rates. Plus we’ll take a look at Mewtwo’s shiny rate. It will take us much longer to gather enough data on Shiny Klink to estimate its shiny rate, but stay tuned for future updates! Let’s dive in!

9/19/2019 1:00 UTC Update

Researchers at the Silph Road have been hard at work hitting the trails and Raid Battles to bring you the shiny rates for these old and new friends. Information will be updated as we gather new data, or if we make important discoveries along the way.

Species Shinies / Encounters Rate (1 in X) 99% CI (1 in X)
54 / 1,097 20 15 – 29
16 / 4,479 450 180 – 605
14 / 4,567 450 200 – 720

Featured only in raids, researchers have gathered 54 Shiny Mewtwo in 1,097 completed Raid Battles already, bringing it almost exactly to the expected shiny rate of 1 in 20.

Moreover, researchers have checked 4,479 Patrat with 16 Shiny encounters, and 4,567 Lillipup for 14 Shiny encounters! Both of these samples lead us to believe that these species are using the base shiny rate of 1 in 450, as expected.

Thank you, readers, for following along with us once again, and stay safe out there on the road!

Avid shiny hunter? Interested in tracking shiny rates? Come join the Silph Research Group and show us what you’re made of!