Red alert, travelers – this is NOT a drill! Team GO Rocket have re-emerged from the shadows and they’re stronger then ever! This time we don’t only have Grunts to battle, but the Sinister Trio of Leaders: Cliff, Sierra, and Arlo. If you defeat one of these Team Leaders, you’ll have a chance to capture one of their Shadow Pokémon for yourself. Additionally, the Shadow Pokémon you receive as a reward (Meowth, Sneasel, and Scyther) have a chance to be shiny! The Silph Research Group vigilantes have answered the call of science, and are working on determining the probability of encountering a shiny Shadow Pokémon. Let’s Look at what we have discovered so far!
11/12/2019 16:00 UTC Update
As anticipated, gathering a large sample size for this study has proven difficult. Nevertheless, researchers have defeated over 3,400 Grunts and 567 Rocket Team Leaders since the feature’s global release. The three Team Leaders have been defeated in roughly equal proportion (203, 190, and 174 for Cliff, Arlo, and Sierra, respectively). Researchers have caught 3 shiny Shadow Meowth, 1 shiny Shadow Scyther, and 3 shiny Shadow Sneasel. The data set is still small, and doesn’t provide any evidence to conclude that the shiny rate differs between the 3 species (p-value = 0.67, G-test), but we will be keeping a close eye on this moving forward. If (and that’s still a big “if”) the probability of receiving a shiny Shadow Pokémon is the same for Meowth, Scyther, and Sneasel, we can calculate a 99% confidence interval of 1 in 36 to 1 in 277 from these data.
Interpretation of these results is difficult at this time. The shiny rates for Raid Days (1 in 10), Legendary Raid Battles (1 in 20), and Community Day (~1 in 25) are well outside of the confidence interval, and we feel confident that these rates are not being used. These data also provide good evidence that the shiny rate is boosted. However, data sets gathered from large groups of less-experienced researchers (as is the case here) tend to be more prone to bias towards higher shiny rates, so we are hesitant to make any strong conclusions at this time. Furthermore, the non-Shadow forms of these three species likely use different shiny rates. It is still unclear whether this difference will translate to their dark counterparts, further complicating the analysis. Researchers will continue to press forward against the forces of evil to help answer these questions!
Thanks for stopping by, and keep watch for anything else peculiar, travelers!