Regis and Skarmory Shiny Rates

Greetings, travelers! An immense force has struck Pokémon GO, with Regirock, Regice, and Registeel returning to five-star raids! From Friday, November 1 to Monday, November 4, trainers will be able to battle for the chance of catching a shiny member of this legendary trio. To celebrate their return, the Armor Bird Pokémon Skarmory has flown in swiftly with a shiny appearance of its own!

Hitting the trails as always, our Silph Road Researchers have been out raiding and catching to bring us the latest on these new discoveries. We are reporting data from both Travelers who have a ticket for early-access Regigigas, and from those who do not, to try to determine if there is a difference in shiny rates between the two. Stay tuned as more details come in!

11/4/2019 2:00 UTC

Researchers have reported 82 shinies out of 1,702 total raids of Regirock, Regice, and Registeel combined. The overwhelming majority of these raids were completed by researchers who purchased a special ticket (1,616/1,702 and 79/82 shinies). Researchers were also asked to separate out raids completed during the 11:00am – 7:00pm special event window. During this time frame, researchers with a ticket completed 1,414 of their total 1,702 raids and collected 66 shinies.

In summary, these data do not provide sufficient evidence to suggest that the overall shiny rates of the Legendary trio differ from the standard 1 in 20 (99% confidence interval of 1 in 16 to 28) Legendary raid shiny rate for researchers who purchased the special early-access Regigigas ticket.

Skarmory stands at 2,542 total encounters (combining wild, raid, and field research), with 46 shinies. These data provide sufficient evidence to reject the standard (unboosted) shiny rate in favor of a boosted shiny rate for Skarmory (99% confidence interval of 1 in 39 to 83). As anticipated, 2,318 of these encounters and all but 4 shinies come from researchers who purchased an event ticket, making comparisons between the two groups of researchers difficult at this stage.

Thanks for stopping by, travelers, and see you again soon!