Party Hat Pokémon Shiny Rates

2020 is upon us, and with it a full year to discover more about the world of Pokémon GO! The new year is starting off with a bang as the Adventure Sync Hatchathon has returned for a second year with a new set of surprises. However, it turns out we aren’t the only ones celebrating. Several Pokémon have decided to join in the festivities by donning a party hat. Party Hat Pikachu makes its return and will be available in the Wild. Raticate (Pokédex #20) and Wobbuffet (Pokédex #202) with party hats are celebrating by invading Raid Battles, and hatching from 2-km Eggs are Pichu and the long-awaited – Party Hat Wurmple. Each of these species can be found in their shiny forms! Hoping to do some celebrating of their own, our researchers set out to find the shiny rate of these species. Let’s take a peek at what they’ve found!

1/6/2020 15:00 UTC Update

Researchers have set their sights on four party hat species during this event: Wurmple, Pikachu, Raticate, and Wobbuffet.

Species Encounters Shinies 99% Confidence Interval
Wurmple 195 6 1 in 15 to 1 in 125
Pikachu 1,709 2 1 in 230 to 1 in 16,500
Wobbuffet 133 2 1 in 20 to 1 in 1,270
Raticate 121 4 1 in 10 to 1 in 175

Party hat species have been more difficult to track down for our researchers. But their tenacity has paid off and we can make two fairly solid conclusions based on this data (as well as past experience):

  1. Party Hat Wurmple is using a boosted shiny rate. The exact rate will have to wait for more data as the confidence interval is still very wide, but these data clearly indicate a boosted shiny rate.
  2. Party Hat Pikachu is likely using the standard, unboosted shiny rate. No hatted Pikachu’s have ever used a boosted shiny rate, and it appears that the party hat isn’t going to change that.

Conclusions about Wobbuffet and Raticate should be made more cautiously given the width of their confidence intervals. However, as they are limited to Raid Battles, it would be logical that they are both using a boosted shiny rate, and that it is the same. If we make this assumption and combine their data sets, the 99% confidence interval narrows to 1 in 20 to 1 in 160, which is well above the standard rate. Stronger conclusions will have to wait for more data though!

Thanks for checking in with us, travelers! See you next time.