May and June 2020 Event Shiny Rates

Happy May, travelers! Keeping with the format from the last two months, we’ll be aggregating the results from our group’s event shiny tracking into a single post for May and June. We’ll keep the newest and most relevant information at the top of the post, with past events shown below for reference. Now more than ever, we hope you are all staying safe out there on the Road.

Sinnoh Throwback Challenge

Last Updated 5/25/2020 21:00 UTC

The final Throwback Challenge, Sinnoh, is here! This challenge features the release of shiny Glameow! Mirroring past challenges, Glameow can be found in the wild and from the Field Research Task Catch 3 Normal-type Pokémon. For this analysis, we will combine data collected from both encounter types.

Researchers have been on top of their game this week; they’ve encountered 7,247 Glameow since the start of the event, and recorded 13 shinies. These data put the 99% confidence interval around shiny rate at 1 in 315 to 1 in 1,160, and give strong evidence for the standard, unboosted shiny rate. Until next time, travelers.

Incense Day: Water and Dark Type

Last Updated 5/18/2020 3:30 UTC

The latest iteration of the Incense Day event just ended in the final time zones. Incense activated from 11:00 am – 5:00 pm local time switched between attracting Water and Dark-type Pokémon each hour. In particular, the event highlighted Carvanha. Many travelers anticipated a boosted shiny rate for Carvanha after Sentret was given special treatment during the first iteration of this event type.

Anecdotal reports from travelers in Australia and New Zealand suggest that shiny rates may have been bugged during the first few hours of the event, affecting the most eastern time zones. Unfortunately, our researchers are highly skewed towards North America and Europe, so we cannot confirm or deny these reports with our data. In total, across the entire world, researchers encountered 2,099 Carvanha and 45 were shiny. The average shiny rate from this data set is around 1 in 45, with a 99% confidence interval of 1 in 33 to 1 in 71. If the same shiny rate was used throughout the entire event, the most likely shiny rate from those previously observed is the “Permaboosted” rate, near 1 in 60. Slightly better shiny odds also cannot be ruled out.

These data may leave unanswered questions, but we can confidently conclude that many travelers enjoyed a significantly boosted shiny rate for Carvanha during this event.

Hoenn Throwback Challenge

Last Updated 5/18/2020 2:30 UTC

This week, the Hoenn Throwback Challenge features the release of shiny Skitty! Similar to last week, Skitty can be found in the wild and from the Field Research Task Catch 3 Normal-type Pokémon. Once again, we will combine data collected from both encounter types.

Researchers have had a bit more trouble tracking down Skitty this week compared to Dunsparce and Venonat the last two weeks. They’ve encountered 4,216 Skitty since the start of the event, and recorded 14 shinies. These data put the 99% confidence interval around shiny rate at 1 in 195 to 1 in 695, likely pointing towards the standard, unboosted shiny rate. Thanks for stopping by, travelers!

Virizion in Raid Battles

Last Updated 5/17/2020 2:00 UTC

Our larger group of Task Forcers took a break from tracking Legendary Raid Battles this week. However, a smaller group of researchers collected a “small” data set of 336 raids. Of these raids, 16 rewarded the shiny form of Virizion, indicating the standard Legendary Raid shiny rate of 1 in 20 is likely being used (95% confidence interval of 1 in 13 to 1 in 35).

Johto Throwback Challenge

Last Updated 5/11/2020 3:00 UTC

This week, the Johto Throwback Challenge features the release of shiny Dunsparce! Dunsparce can be found in the wild and from the Field Research Task Catch 3 Normal-type Pokémon. For this post, we will combine data collected from both encounter types.

Researchers have been working hard this event, encountering 7,787 Dunsparce since the start of the event, and catching 20 shinies. These data put the 99% confidence interval firmly around the standard, unboosted shiny rate at 1 in 250 to 1 in 745. Good luck the rest of the week, travelers!

Kanto Throwback Challenge

Last Updated 5/5/2020 13:00 UTC

The Kanto Throwback Challenge features the release of shiny Venonat! You can find this bug in the wild and from the Field Research Task Catch 3 Poison-type Pokémon. For this post, we will combine data collected from both encounter types.

Researchers have been lucky this event, capturing 28 shiny Venonat in 8,135 encounters. These data put the 99% confidence interval around the shiny rate at 1 in 205 to 1 in 520. While these data have an average shiny rate slightly better than the unboosted rate, based on past events with common Pokémon, we believe Venonat is still using the standard, unboosted shiny rate.


Acknowledgements

 – Scientists PhoenixCrystal and IvoryTinkler, and Lead Researcher SarcasmCloud organize the Shiny Task Forces.
 – Artwork by Hectordraw.
 – Scientist Titleist writes and updates the article.
 – Hundreds of amazing volunteers collect the data. Want to help? Join our Discord here.