Kanto Regional Shiny Rates

Hello again, travelers!

The second week of the Ultra Bonus event is here, bringing brand-new shinies to the game: the Kanto regional Pokémon! Shiny Farfetch’d, Kangaskhan, Mr. Mime, and Tauros are all appearing in the wild in their respective regions, giving travelers a reason to be excited about their own regional Pokémon again! Travelers are also hitting the pavement with some particularly special 7 km eggs in their incubators. All 7 km eggs collected until the 23rd have a chance of hatching any one of the four regional Pokémon, including—if travelers are especially lucky—the shiny variant!

Our dedicated team of researchers here at the Silph Road is off on assignment again, walking eggs and searching for Pokémon, to find out just how rare these shiny regionals are. Stay tuned for our results!

9/13/2019 21:15 UTC Final Update

This event has given us a unique opportunity to examine differences in shiny rates between hatched Pokémon and Pokémon encountered in the wild. As discussed in previous articles, there have been no recorded instances where the shiny rate has been different for the same species between different encounter types. Here’s the raw data we’ve gathered so far where the encounter type was explicitly tracked:

Species Wild Shinies / Encounters Hatched Shinies / Total Hatches
0 / 5 9 / 514
0 / 19 20 / 553
10 / 485 17 / 484
10 / 650 12 / 415

At this stage, and considering our past experience, we can state that both encountering methods share the same rate. Aggregating data across all methods and species (including data where the method of encounter was undefined), we have amassed 4,057 encounters and 103 shinies, leading to a 99% confidence interval for the shiny rate of of 1 in 31 – 51. This confidence interval will continue to narrow over the coming days as more data is accumulated.

Thanks a bunch to our researchers for their stellar work! Thank you readers for tuning in, and have a safe week on the road!