GO Fest Weekend: Shiny Rates

Welcome back, travelers. Silph researchers are once again hitting the pavement en masse to bring you a live shiny rate during an event. Originally, our researchers had set their sights on the seahorse Pokémon, Horsea. However, with reports of boosted shiny rates worldwide for a plethora of species, the team has pivoted. We’ve expanded the Task Force line-up to a record 10 species that will be tracked throughout the duration of the event. These species are: Cubone, Drifloon, Geodude, Misdreavus, Sableye, Sandshrew, Snorunt, Snubbull, and Wailmer. There are several other species that have boosted spawns (and potentially boosted shiny rates), but to maintain the sanity of our researchers, we’ll stick with these as our indicators.

We’ll publish the initial data when the shiny rate is still fuzzy, but a few possibilities have been eliminated. As data is accumulated, our estimate will get better and better, until we conclude with almost certainty what rates are being used. Keep in mind, all data shown here will be collected by researchers outside of the Chicago GO Fest activities. Enjoy!

6/16/2019 16:00 UTC Update

There was a change to shiny rates after the first 24 hours of the event.

In the first 24 hours of the event, we encounted 3,690 Horsea and were rewarded with 37 Shiny Horsea. The 95% confidence interval stretched from 1 in 75 to 1 in 140. Summing data from the other 9 species, we had 8,226 encounters with 78 shinies, with the 95% confidence interval going from 1 in 85 to 1 in 135. Shiny rates for all 10 species were likely boosted to the same level during this period.

Around 24 hours after the event started, shiny rates for all species except Horsea dropped! Since that time, we’ve encountered 3,613 more Horsea and found 27 Shiny Horsea (95% confidence interval of 1 in 95 to 1 in 200). Therefore, a boosted Shiny Horsea rate is likely still in effect. In our dataset, there is no significant difference between the shiny Horsea rate before and after the 24 hour cutoff.

The shiny rate for the other 9 species appears to have returned to the standard 1 in 450 around 24 hours after the event started. In aggregate, we have newly encountered 8,021 with 17 shiny encounters since the change. No drastic differences between the 9 species that have emerged thus far, but we’ll keep our eyes peeled!