GO Fest 2020 Shiny Rates


Over the weekend of the 25th and 26th of July, trainers from all over the world joined the festivities for Pokémon GO Fest 2020. This was their chance to collect exclusive Pokémon and hunt for those elusive shinies! Previously, it had been practically impossible for the Silph Research Group to collect enough data from inside localized events like GO Fests and Safari Zones. However, as Pokémon GO Fest 2020 was open to players globally, we decided it was the perfect time to uncover the event’s shiny rates!

All of our data was collected by researchers who had purchased a ticket for GO Fest 2020, and it was all collected during the active event hours (10 am-8 pm). To make things more manageable for our researchers, we only collected data on select species from the many shiny possible Pokémon at the event. The pattern we see in the data reveals that there were likely two different shiny rates in use across the selected species.

The majority of Pokémon species appear to have been very close to the “Permaboost” rate that we have discussed in previous articles, which is roughly eight times higher than the standard base rate. We also compared the shiny rates for all species between day 1 and day 2 of the event, and found no significant differences in shiny rates. The data for both days combined can be found in the following table.

Species Encounters Shiny Rate 95% CI High 95% CI Low
Alolan Grimer 1,513 35 1 in 43 1 in 32 1 in 62
Alolan Marowak 2,012 28 1 in 72 1 in 51 1 in 108
Chansey 1,374 17 1 in 81 1 in 53 1 in 138
Tangela 3,321 43 1 in 77 1 in 59 1 in 107
Magmar 481 9 1 in 53 1 in 31 1 in 116
Chinchou 665 10 1 in 67 1 in 39 1 in 138
Marill 504 8 1 in 63 1 in 35 1 in 145
Qwilfish 3,275 53 1 in 62 1 in 48 1 in 82
Gible 1,409 20 1 in 70 1 in 48 1 in 115
Woobat 2,339 34 1 in 69 1 in 51 1 in 99
Heatmor 2,517 31 1 in 81 1 in 59 1 in 119
Durant 1,876 34 1 in 55 1 in 41 1 in 79
Total 21,667 326 1 in 66 1 in 58 1 in 77


In contrast, Unown’s shiny rate looks to have been much closer to the “Medium Event” rate, which is roughly four times higher than the usual base rate.

Over the course of the event, we saw a total of 4,909 Unown, of which 38 were shiny. This gives an observed rate of 1 in 129 with a 95% confidence interval of 1 in 96 to 1 in 182.

Lastly, there were a few less common species that had observed shiny rates which were slightly more likely to come from the Medium Event rate than the Permaboosted rate. However, the Permaboosted rate is not excluded from any of their 95% confidence intervals, and there don’t appear to be any obvious differences between these species and the ones shown in the table above. We therefore think it is very likely that these species also used Permaboosted shiny rate, but our researchers were a bit unlucky.

Species Encounters Shiny Rate 95% CI High 95% CI Low
Oddish1 251 1
Poliwag 381 4 1 in 95 1 in 44 1 in 348
Sudowoodo 361 4 1 in 90 1 in 41 1 in 329
Snover 1,284 14 1 in 92 1 in 58 1 in 167
Total 2,277 23 1 in 99 1 in 66 1 in 148

It is safe to say there was a large increase in shiny odds for a number of species during Pokémon GO Fest. It is particularly interesting that species like Gible and Chansey (which usually have a higher base rate) had boosted spawn rates, but do not appear to have had a boosted shiny rate above their norm.

Good luck in your own hunt and stay safe travelers!


Acknowledgments:

Article Author: IvoryTinkler1
Research Group Shiny Task Force Leaders: IvoryTinkler1 and PhoenixCrystal7

Footnotes:

1 Oddish proved to be very difficult to find during the event, and the small sample size means that the confidence interval is impossible to interpret and the observed rate is extremely volatile.