Evolution Event Raid Day Shiny Rates

Greetings once again, travelers! It’s time for another quick glance at the rate of some shiny encounters – this time, from the Evolution Event Raid Day. This event took place on Saturday, December 7th, from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. in each time zone. Once it kicked off, Bulbasaur, Charmander, and Squirtle, along with their evolutions, appeared in raids everywhere – with an abundance of free raid passes to boot. To everyone’s surprise, it was announced that all nine of these Pokémon would have their shiny forms available. So, with hopes of some very exclusive shiny encounters, our researchers hit the ground running.

12/8/2019 15:30 UTC

Researchers defeated these nine species in 288 raids during the three-hour event, nabbing 39 shiny Pokémon (99% confidence interval of 1 in 5 to 12). While this data only goes so far in estimating the exact rate used to give shiny encounters in this event alone, it seems likely that the same 1 in 10 rate that has been seen in several previous Raid Day events was used again. There were not any statistically significant differences between the evolution stages (Chi-squared test, p-value=0.37), but the data set is too small to detect any subtle changes that might have been at play.

Hope this satisfies your curiosity! We’ll see you again next event! In the meantime, travelers, don’t forget there are only a few days left in the Evolution Event, with quite a few species that can be shiny, useful for raids, or useful for PvP battles (or all three – hello Magnemite!) – that aren’t often available in such abundance.