Dortmund GO Fest: Nidoran Shiny Rates

Welcome back, travelers! The Silph Research Group is at it again. We’ve gotten wind of a new Shiny Pokémon, male Nidoran! Researchers have donned their lab coats and safety glasses to investigate the probability of receiving the Shiny Form of the poison pin Pokémon. In addition, there have been reports of Pokémon from the Dortmund GO Fest habitats appearing around the world. Our researchers have also endeavored to track 7 additional species with Shiny forms available that are appearing in higher numbers (Caterpie, Grimer, Magikarp, Kabuto, Omanyte, Sandshrew, and Shellder). There are a few others that may be boosted, but we’ll use these 7 as our indicator species for the shiny rates of all boosted spawns. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the data so far!

7/8/2019 16:00 UTC Final Update

After GOFest Pokémon started spawning worldwide, researchers encountered 5,722 male Nidoran and were rewarded with 53 Shinies. These data lead to a 99% confidence interval of:

1 in 80 – 1 in 160

We can see that it is almost certain that male Nidoran had a boosted shiny rate. The rate of ~1/150 seems likely, as this has been used in past events.

Combining the data from our 7 indicator species, we tallied up 12,650 encounters and 38 Shiny Pokémon. This gives a 99% confidence interval of:

1 in 225 – 1 in 525

Therefore, it is likely that the other species did not have a boosted shiny rate. If you’d like to help contribute data to future Shiny hunts, you can always find us here!