December 2019 Community Weekend Shiny Rates

Season’s greetings, travelers! The Community Day wrap-up is back again this December, with Pokémon from all 2018 and 2019 Community Days returning for some fun. All Community Day Pokémon will have their special move available from 9 am Saturday to 9 pm Sunday in your local time. In addition, this event is a great chance for travelers to collect the shiny forms of Pokémon that they may have missed during their original Community Day! We’re here to help you with that. Our researchers have taken to streets, trails, and parks all over the world in order to determine the shiny rates for this special, annual weekend event! Let’s take a look at what they’ve found!

Day 1

Researchers have clocked over 7,000 encounters with the 22 Community Day Pokémon since the event began! Two conclusions are very clear from this data set already. First, shiny rates are not the same for all species. Second, shiny rates are different during the 3-hour bonus period for some species.

Let’s look at the numbers. During the Saturday 3-hour bonus period, six 2019 Pokémon were extra boosted in the wild (Totodile, Swinub, Treecko, Bagon, Torchic, and Slakoth). Encounters with these six species within the 3-hour window had a shiny rate of approximately 1 in 25 (7,034 encounters, 287 shinies, 99% confidence interval of 1 in 21 to 1 in 29), the normal rate observed during Community Days.

However, encounters with the other five 2019 Pokémon do not appear to share the same rate as the highlighted Pokémon. During the 3-hour boosted period, researchers encountered 503 of these species, and recorded 5 shinies. This leads to a 99% confidence interval of 1 in 40 to 1 in 465, which well excludes the 1 in 25 Community Day shiny rate.

Furthermore, none of the 2019 Pokémon use the 1 in 25 Community Day shiny rate outside of the 3-hour bonus event period. Combined, they account for 938 encounters and 7 shinies (99% confidence interval of 1 in 60 to 1 in 460). It is reasonable to speculate that this is the same shiny rate used by the non-highlighted 2019 Pokémon during the 3-hour event window. If this is the case, we can combine the data sets to get a more accurate estimate of the shiny rate (~1 in 120, 1,441 encounters, 12 shinies, 99% confidence interval of 1 in 65 to 1 in 290).

Data on 2018 Pokémon has been difficult to come by so far. Researchers have found 135 of these species in their data recording sessions, and have found 2 shiny Pokémon. These data provide little room to speculate about a possible shiny rate. We will continue to collect data on Day 2 of the Community Day wrap-up in order to narrow this down!

Until next time, travelers. Thanks for stopping by!

Day 2

Researchers recorded an additional 6,000 encounters on the second day of the Community Weekend wrap-up. These data further support the hypotheses that began to emerge during Day 1. Community Day Pokémon from 2019 had a baseline shiny rate around 1 in 130 throughout the weekend (3,358 encounters over both days, 26 shinies, 99% confidence interval of 1 in 80 to 1 in 225), except during the 3-hour bonus period if the species was boosted. During the 3-hour bonus period, highlighted Pokémon used the standard Community Day shiny rate of 1 in 25 (13,405 encounters over both days, 518 shinies, 99% confidence interval of 1 in 23 to 1 in 29).

2018 Pokémon were as difficult to come by on Day 2 as Day 1. Combining the two days (including some data from Day 1 that trickled in after the Day 1 piece was written), our researchers encountered 418 Pokémon from 2018 Community Days, and found 4 shinies. The 99% confidence interval around the shiny rate ranges from 1 in 40 to 1 in 620. This eliminate 1 in 25 as a possible shiny rate, but we would need more data to estimate the actual rate. However, it seems logical that 2018 Pokémon might have used the same baseline shiny rate as the 2019 Pokémon.

Thanks for stopping by, travelers. See you again soon!