Alolan Pokémon Shiny Rates

Welcome back, travelers! In one of the largest shiny releases to date, eight different Alolan Pokémon can now be encountered in the wild and hatched from eggs as part of Pokémon GO‘s third anniversary celebration. Silph researchers have assembled a Task Force in order to take on the challenge of determining the shiny rate of Alolan Pokémon that can be found in the wild. These are the Alolan forms of Diglett, Exeggutor, Geodude, and Rattata. Data collection began around 3:00 UTC on the 29th of June, after a boost to the spawn rate was detected. Let’s take a look at what the data say about their shiny rate so far!

7/2/2019 1:30 UTC Update

Despite the small size of the dataset, we’re going to take a look at each of the four species individually. It’s still too early to look the exact rate for Alolan Exeggutor, but the other three species seem to be converging on the standard 1 in 450 shiny rate.

Species Shinies /
Encounters
Rate
(1 in X)
99% CI
(1 in X)
11 / 5,373 450 250 – 1240
17 / 1,048 60 37 – 130
19 / 6,724 450 210 – 695
14 / 5,179 450 200 – 830

From this dataset, we can conclude that Alolan Exeggutor is enjoying a significantly boosted shiny rate, and that Alolan Rattata, Alolan Diglett, and Alolan Geodude are not boosted. Thanks for tuning in, see you soon!