2021 Lunar New Year: Lucky Year of the Ox

Hello, travelers! The annual Pokémon GO Lunar New Year festival has returned with increased chances of lucky trades, as well as increased chances of becoming lucky friends when you interact with your Best Friends! How big are those increased chances? The Silph researchers are hitting the road to find out! We’ll update this post throughout the event with our latest numbers.

Lucky Trade Rates

[Latest update at 17:00 UTC, February 14.]

Since the beginning of this year’s Lunar Event, researchers have made 4,333 trades of new Pokémon with other new Pokémon. 433 of those have gone lucky, for a rate of 9.99% (99% CI 8.85 – 11.20%).

The normal, non-boosted lucky rate for trades involving two new Pokémon is 5%. To ensure we’re focusing our efforts where we can get the most accurate data, researchers are only recording data for non special trades involving two new (less than 365 days old) Pokémon.

In 2019, researchers uncovered a 9% lucky trade rate for trades involving two new Pokémon, up from the standard 5% rate. The 2020 Lunar Event got off to a rocky start, with no lucky trade boost detectable for the first day or two of the event, but the lucky trade rate was increased later in the event, and ended near the 9% from 2019.

Lucky Friend Rates

Our trusty researchers have had 843 friend interactions since the beginning of the Lunar event, with 26 lucky friends for a rate of 3.1% (99% CI 1.8% – 4.8%). This rate closely matches the ~3% rate we noted during the last Lunar New Year Event and is significantly higher than ~1% rate of lucky friendship interactions which are normally observed (p-value=0.004). (Note: these numbers include all types of friendship interactions.)

Conclusion

Silph researchers will keep trading and interacting with friends, and we’ll keep you up-to-date here! May your New Year be filled with fortune and lucky Pokémon. Stay safe on the road, travelers!