12km and 10km eggs award less Candy XL than other distances

Note From the Editor:
Within a few of hours of this field discovery article going live, the Niantic Support account on Twitter posted the following:

“Trainers, we’ve resolved an issue causing an incorrect amount of Candy XL to drop from Eggs. The adjustments are now live in the app.”
@NianticHelp on Twitter

Naturally, the Silph Research Group will continue to gather data on this and will report back with anything we find. With these reported bug fixes in mind, travelers should be aware that the data presented below may no longer be accurate to the current state of the game.

The Silph Research Group’s project studying Candy XL drop rates from eggs is still in its infancy. However, in our early analysis of the first 700 hatches, we noted some striking differences between the different egg distances that we wanted to make the community (and Niantic) aware of.

Egg Distance Hatches Avg. Candy XL per hatch
2km 280 2.40
5km 173 2.47
7km 108 2.36
10km 81 1.64
12km 58 0.86

These means are significantly different (p-value<10-15) using an ANOVA (or Welch test). Using a Tukey’s HSD test to compare means, the Candy XL awarded for 12km and 10km eggs are significantly different (p-value<10-3) from all other distances (including each other).

We believe this is important information for travelers to have this weekend, with the increased Team Rocket activity for the Game Awards, and the 1/2 hatch distance bonus active during December Community Day hours.

Thanks for reading, travelers.