October Event Shiny Rates

Happy Halloween, travelers! The spooky month of October is almost at its end. Our team of eager researchers spent this month searching, raiding, completing quests, and popping incense hoping to find the elusive sparkles that accompany a Shiny Pokémon. There were several events during this month that researchers could test their mettle and data-gathering chops. Let’s take a look through each of the event-featured species this month and see what the data tell us about their shiny rates!

Pokémon GO Halloween

The end of October heralds the return of a community favorite: the Pokémon GO Halloween Event. Like last year’s celebration, various Pokémon decided to dress up for the holiday. Sableye dressed as Litwick and Gengar dressed as Mega Banette have both joined in the festivities, and travelers have a chance at encountering the shiny version of Spiritomb, the Forbidden Pokemon. In an extra challenge, Mega Gengar has decided to haunt the world, and when taken down, Gengar in this encounter will also be wearing a costume with a chance to be shiny.

Researchers have earned 380 Spiritomb encounters from Field and Special Research during the event. Of these, 9 were shiny. Among all previously observed shiny rates, the Permaboosted rate of about 1 in 60 is the most likely shiny rate, with 91% certainty.

For Gengar, researchers have been much less lucky, raiding for over 228 Gengar from Raid Battles with only a single shiny to show for it. It’s difficult to determine a shiny rate from this limited data, but we can safely eliminate the 1 in 20 and 1 in 10 rates that have been used primarily for Legendary Raids and some Raid Days. The closest prior information we can use to make a guess is data from the other Mega Raids. Researchers have gathered data from 570 Mega Raids for Venusaur, Charizard, Blastoise, Pidgeot, and Houndoom, with 12 shinies, putting the shiny rate very near the Permaboosted rate of about 1 in 60. It’s unclear whether the costumed-variety of Gengar breaks this trend.

Finally, researchers encountered 954 Litwick-hatted Sableye and 3 shinies. These data suggest the standard non-boosted shiny rate is being used.

Changing of the Seasons

Prior to the Halloween Event was the Team GO Rocket-themed Changing of the Seasons event. Vulpix, the fox Pokémon, decided it would be a good time for it to change its coat for the season, and Vulpix’s shiny variant was unlocked for hunting. Another Pokémon could also sense the changing times and decided to re-emerge once again from the Reverse World in its Origin Forme. It was the rise of Giratina, and our researchers leapt at the chance to encounter the off-color Renegade Pokémon.

Researchers were hard at work this event, encountering 5,344 Vulpix and 55 of their shiny variety. Of all previously observed shiny rates, these data strongly suggest that the Medium Event rate of about 1 in 125 was used throughout the event, with 98% certainty.

Silph researchers captured 63 shiny Giratina out of 1,151 Raid battles during this Legendary foe’s return. These data are in line with previous estimates for the Legendary shiny rate of about 1 in 20.

Longchamp Fashion Week

The final event we’ll be taking a look at in this article is the Longchamp-sponsored Fashion Week Event. A full line of Pokémon decided to get stylish and shiny on the runway, including Smoochum with a bow tie, Croagunk with a baseball cap, Shinx with a top hat, and new shiny Kricketot, the cricket Pokémon.

Smoochum could be found primarily from Field Research tasks during the event. Hard-working researchers completed 1,173 tasks and found 15 shiny Smoochum. These data lean towards the Permaboosted shiny rate of about 1 in 60 (which was the shiny rate used by Smoochum previously when its normal form could be hatched) with 78% certainty, but the Medium Event rate is also a possibility.

Researchers flopped like a frog in their hunt for shiny Croagunk. They encountered over 1,800 without a shiny to be found. Before you ask, yes, shiny Croagunk was available, but our researchers were very unlucky. But this streak strongly suggests that Croagunk was using the standard, unboosted shiny rate.

Researchers were not able to collect enough data to estimate the shiny rate for top-hatted Shinx, but they were very successful in their hunt for the new shiny Kricketot. Researchers captured 83 shiny Kricketot in just under 8,400 encounters. Suspicion must fall heavily on the Medium Event rate given these data. If we assume that a previous shiny rate was used, we have over 99% certainty that the Medium Event rate is the correct shiny rate.

Thanks for reading, travelers. Until next time, good luck in your shiny adventures!