Hatching Riolu

Since its release into the world of Pokémon GO, Riolu has remained one of the most elusive species in the game. As a baby Pokémon, it is currently only available via one mechanic: eggs. Riolu is also unique in that it is the only Pokémon available in all three egg pools – PokéStop/Gym eggs, Gift eggs, and Adventure Sync 50-km reward eggs, leaving travelers some freedom to strategize. Today we’re going to take a quick look at the hatch rates of Riolu from each of these pools to help travelers in their Riolu hunt, particularly with Lucario being one of the top Pokémon in PvP. Let’s dive in!

The Numbers

By a huge margin, the highest hatch rate for Riolu is in Adventure Sync reward eggs.

Egg Pool Date Range Total Eggs Riolu Hatch Rate
Adventure Sync 50-km February 13th – present 372 72 16.7% (1/6)
Gifts July 1st – present 1935 16 ~0.8%
PokéStops/Gyms June 13th – present 3981 7 ~0.2%

Thus, on a per-egg basis, Adventure Sync eggs are your best bet. Riolu is one of only six species in the 50-km reward egg pool and each of the six species are equally likely.

Increasing your odds

The big caveat to the above numbers is that you can only receive one 10km egg per week for reaching the 50-km milestone, drastically increasing the expected time it would take to get a potential Riolu egg compared to other methods. So how does the high probability for the species stack up against the low availability of the eggs?

Let’s look at three extreme (and unrealistic) trainers to examine this idea.

  • Trainer #1: Walks 50 km every week. Only uses their infinite incubator, only hatches Gift eggs, and does not keep egg slots open for Adventure Sync eggs.
  • Trainer #2: Walks 50 km every week. Constantly runs 9 super incubators on Gift eggs. Does not collect Adventure Sync eggs.
  • Trainer #3: Walks 50 km every week. Doesn’t hatch a single other egg except for those they receive from Adventure Sync.

The idealized free-to-play Trainer #1 who doesn’t collect Adventure Sync eggs is expected to have a 50% probability of hatching at least one Riolu in around 12 weeks. This probability increases to 90% after 9 months. They hatch about one egg per day, and with the low probability of receiving a Riolu, the days can really drag on, even while walking a considerable amount.

Trainer #2 will hatch an average of 14 eggs per day with their play style, making their chances of receiving a Riolu on a given day about 13%. (We’ll ignore the fact that they might not receive 14 eggs from their 20 Gifts every day.) Keeping this pace, they could expect to receive a Riolu 50% of the time in about 6 days. To increase their chances to 90%, they would need to keep the same pace for 21 days (289 total eggs). While expensive (we’ll let you run the numbers), there is no doubt that the brute force method works.

Trainer #3 will receive an egg approximately 90% of the time from Adventure Sync (assuming they keep an egg slot open), putting their overall chance of hatching a Riolu at ~15% in any given week. In just 4 weeks, Trainer #3 has about a 50% chance of receiving at least one Riolu, and this probability increases to 90% after 14 weeks. This is remarkable considering they haven’t spent a dime, and also don’t bother to keep an egg in their free incubator for 80% of the week.

Parting Words

We hope that this article has shed some light on the best strategy for nabbing Riolu. While rare, these babies are certainly within reach for the average player and require just a bit of patience and preparation (remember you need to keep an egg slot and a Pokémon storage slot open to receive an Adventure Sync egg).

With a bit of luck and a lot of tread off your shoes, here’s hoping you will hatch your next Riolu soon!

Until next time, see you on the Road, travelers!

– Scientist Titleist