During the first Community Day event in January, a dramatic increase in the number of Shiny Pikachu spawns was observed in the wild. Thanks to the timely work of our researchers during the three-hour window, the Silph Research group was able to come very close to determining the boosted rate at which these elusive creatures appeared.
Within the 3 hours of the event, 2,159 Pikachu sightings were reported, out of which 95 were shiny. This resulted in a rate of approximately:
1 in 22.7
Within a 95% confidence interval, the range is between:
1 in 19 to 1 in 28.3
Remember, every unique wild Pikachu encounter has the same probability of unearthing a shiny Pikachu. Your odds on the next encounter are not affected by your previous Pikachu encounters.
But we can still put this encounter rate into a practical example by illustrating how likely or unlikely it is to encounter a large number of Pikachu without encountering a shiny!
For these examples, we’ll use the hypothetically ‘rarest’ 1 in 28.3 chance in order to view the most conservative (worst case) scenario. In this example, the table below shows the chances that you would catch at least 1 shiny:
|# of Pikachu||% chance to get a shiny|
As you can see, it takes well over 28 Pikachu to get close to guaranteeing a shiny and a shiny Pikachu will never be completely guaranteed regardless of the number you catch.
Due to the (relatively) smaller data set collected during the three-hour window, further testing for potentially influential variables (such as weather-boosts) were not feasible to conduct. However, no variables that were collected were observed to have any obvious effect on shiny rate.
Whether the next Community Day will also hold such a pleasant shiny surprise has yet to be seen, but keep your eyes peeled, travelers. If so, we’d expect to observe a similar rate of shiny encounters. We hope this information helps inform your efforts in that case!
Until then, travel safe!